Grandiose-Screenwriting
0xbff43a8e61af6e9599d288f321282e410f57a056
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$346.84
Total PnL
$-46.11
Realised
$7.25
Win rate
13%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
97 shares @ 88.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$93.28
$8.08
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
100 shares @ 65.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$84.50
$19.50
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
57 shares @ 87.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$51.72
$1.72
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
93 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.61
$-1.39
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
47 shares @ 64.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$35.39
$5.39
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
70 shares @ 57.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.33
$-6.67
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
167 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
57 shares @ 52.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
23 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
22 shares @ 66.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?$30.00Aug 11, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?$50.00Aug 11, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$50.00Aug 10, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$50.00Aug 7, 11:12 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$178.00Aug 4, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$40.00Jul 16, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$35.20Jul 14, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$41.98Jul 14, 01:47 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$35.00Jul 11, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$33.15Jul 9, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$7.08Jul 7, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$37.80Jul 7, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$20.12Jul 7, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$99.70Jul 2, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$43.68Jun 12, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$25.00Jun 8, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$60.00Jun 2, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$70.00May 31, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$118.10May 24, 07:27 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$105.39May 19, 21:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $23.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 16:40 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 15:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.