Animated-Leptocephalus
0xc12c75d8d7f6230a88e734f594ce1b050b46da6e
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-492.63
Realised
$-15.26
Win rate
0%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
15950 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-79.75
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
337 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-13.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16?
224 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 15?
113 shares @ 82.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-92.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15?
107 shares @ 67.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-71.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?
74 shares @ 80.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-58.98
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 15?
31 shares @ 89.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-27.48
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 20?
31 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 20?
30 shares @ 52.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.81
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on May 16?
26 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.86
Recent activity
- TRADESELLHasan Piker arrested by June 30?$17.29Jun 22, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYHasan Piker arrested by June 30?$72.98Jun 21, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLHasan Piker arrested by June 30?$90.00Jun 21, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYHasan Piker arrested by June 30?$26.13Jun 21, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLHasan Piker arrested by June 30?$50.30Jun 21, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYHasan Piker arrested by June 30?$20.97Jun 21, 21:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June?$0.86Jun 21, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLHasan Piker arrested by June 30?$15.51Jun 21, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYHasan Piker arrested by June 30?$10.49Jun 21, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June?$20.87Jun 21, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?$61.44Jun 15, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?$92.60Jun 15, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?$61.54Jun 14, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?$19.73Jun 14, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?$54.89Jun 14, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?$33.13Jun 14, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?$7.74Jun 14, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?$154.32Jun 14, 16:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?$126.20Jun 14, 16:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?$68.30Jun 14, 16:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $39.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 20, 18:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 07:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.