Likable-Temporariness
0xc15cad59b14079fb7a553c483ac5262c15746549
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$37.41
Total PnL
$-808.88
Realised
$-107.41
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
208 shares @ 9.6¢·now 6.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$12.71
$-7.29
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
91 shares @ 11.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.79
$-3.21
- YES
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
212 shares @ 3.8¢·now 2.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.73
$-2.27
- YES
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
3548 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.32
$-25.67
- YES
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026?
154 shares @ 2.6¢·now 3.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.25
$1.25
- YES
New pandemic in 2026?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.95
$-0.05
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
3 shares @ 31.7¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.66
$-0.34
- YES
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
13595 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-108.96
- YES
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
12198 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-74.98
- YES
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
3408 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-39.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?$8.00Jul 23, 18:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 8, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 6, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 3, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $24.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 06:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 18:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.