Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.9pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$127.71
Liquidity
$7.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-38.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $7.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 890.4h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -38.2pp at 3d ago (to 2¢).
Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -37.0pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -36.7pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -37.1pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -38.1pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -38.1pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -38.0pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -38.0pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -38.2pp → 2¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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