Which-Ironclad
0xc164742999a1b194bb8f3ba85f593d13c0a955a8
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
43
Open notional
$13.80
Total PnL
$-42.04
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
4 shares @ 26.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.85
$2.85
- YES
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.64
$0.64
- YES
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 66.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.52
$0.52
- YES
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$1.43
$0.43
- YES
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 89.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.34
$0.34
- YES
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.32
$0.32
- YES
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
14 shares @ 14.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
4 shares @ 22.7¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.88
$-0.12
- YES
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
2 shares @ 61.3¢·now 24.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.39
$-0.61
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.27
$-0.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$3.00Mar 1, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$10.00Mar 1, 08:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Violet Bridgerton get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?$1.49Feb 28, 08:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$1.61Feb 28, 08:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?$1.54Feb 26, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMT20 World Cup: New Zealand vs Pakistan$0.89Feb 22, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMAlbany Great Danes vs. UMBC Retrievers$1.41Feb 22, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?$1.52Feb 22, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: GenOne vs Alliance (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup 1 Playoffs$1.59Feb 22, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: LOUD vs RED Canids (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs$1.61Feb 22, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs DEPO (BO1) - META Cup Group A$1.61Feb 22, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs$1.67Feb 22, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Leo Team vs illwill (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup 1 Playoffs$1.67Feb 22, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palermo FC win on 2026-02-21?$1.79Feb 22, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21?$2.08Feb 22, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SS Lazio win on 2026-02-21?$1.00Feb 21, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?$1.00Feb 21, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris FC win on 2026-02-21?$1.00Feb 21, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs$1.00Feb 21, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: LOUD vs RED Canids (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs$1.00Feb 21, 18:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $1.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 21, 08:04 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 1, 08:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.