Loading shell…
PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 23, 2025

Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?

Probability

1h

+1.3pp

24h

-17.1pp

24h Vol

$251.90

Liquidity

$17.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-19.3pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 13:00Apr 25, 2026, 10:55
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 10:55Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -18.5pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -15.9pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -15.0pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -15.8pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -15.6pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -11.1pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -10.3pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -7.4pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -4.4pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -4.6pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.8pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.8pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.7pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.9pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.8pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.9pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.7pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.2pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.1pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.2pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.9pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.7pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventGuinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau. If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 23, 2025
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).