Energetic-Mansion
0xc185f496c90d72e28131f58a980416e22d317020
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$509.26
Total PnL
$-202.02
Realised
$-2.15
Win rate
16%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?
329 shares @ 81.4¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$313.75
$45.80
- YES
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1000?
36 shares @ 76.3¢·now 98.1¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$35.71
$7.94
- OVER
Sabah FK vs. Aarhus GF: Aarhus GF O/U 4.5 Corners
60 shares @ 37.1¢·now 50.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$29.98
$7.72
- YES
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
329 shares @ 8.7¢·now 7.3¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$24.19
$-4.45
- NEW YORK YANKEES
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
21 shares @ 28.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Sep 22, 2026$18.06
$12.11
- NO
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
17 shares @ 52.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.27
$2.46
- NO
Will over 58 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?
19 shares @ 54.9¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.97
$-0.55
- YES
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
17 shares @ 40.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.05
$1.27
- NO
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch
11 shares @ 51.5¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$7.74
$2.09
- YES
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 8 minutes long?
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 27, 2026$5.94
$0.94
Recent activity
- TRADESELLCeltic FC vs. LASK Linz: O/U 13.5 Total Corners$34.13Aug 18, 19:02 UTC
- TRADESELLCeltic FC vs. LASK Linz: O/U 11.5 Total Corners$10.93Aug 18, 19:02 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $2.5B crypto hack value in 2026?$0.73Aug 18, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $3B crypto hack value in 2026?$4.74Aug 18, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?$9.60Aug 18, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$11.20Aug 18, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$3.22Aug 18, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?$2.49Aug 18, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?$4.45Aug 18, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$5.76Aug 18, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?$4.10Aug 18, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$5.30Aug 18, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$5.30Aug 18, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?$4.10Aug 18, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?$6.62Aug 18, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?$9.78Aug 18, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLSaturn FDV above $100M one day after launch$1.79Aug 18, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSaturn FDV above $100M one day after launch$2.56Aug 18, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYValantis FDV above $150M one day after launch?$3.86Aug 18, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYValantis FDV above $80M one day after launch?$1.37Aug 18, 10:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
32 closed markets, 16% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 18:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 19:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.