Over $3B crypto hack value in 2026?
Probability
48¢
1h
+7.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$10.32
Liquidity
$27.90
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 48¢; +7.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6017h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 86.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6016.5h
- 12:28SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6017h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.0pp
to 40¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 39¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 44¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 44¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 38¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 41¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 40¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 42¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 49¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 50¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 46¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 44¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 41¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks The total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026. If the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used. If the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (86.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).