Guilty-Warlord
0xc1c1de4d288b04b8f36890d4d9f52ef93ac61a3c
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$22.41
Total PnL
$-653.64
Realised
$26.37
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
408 shares @ 12.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.71
$-33.25
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.50
$-10.50
- YES
Will UNI reach $9.50 by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 39.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.20
$-2.70
- YES
Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
19090 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.98
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
1104 shares @ 19.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-218.04
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
1038 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-110.00
- YES
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?
720 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-52.42
- YES
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025?
501 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-7.11
- NO
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
421 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-84.11
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?
386 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-2.11
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.