0xc24fa1e0fda1552c830022807abd855aadbe220b
0xc24fa1e0fda1552c830022807abd855aadbe220b
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
173
Open notional
$5.6K
Total PnL
$422.49
Realised
$16.08
Win rate
63%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 173- YES
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?
221 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$209.19
$9.99
- YES
Will HBO Max win the most Emmys?
286 shares @ 52.2¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$195.79
$46.68
- NO
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
310 shares @ 54.1¢·now 53.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$164.43
$-3.45
- NO
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election?
168 shares @ 94.7¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$161.24
$1.74
- YES
Will Kate Marshall win the 2026 Reno mayoral election?
171 shares @ 75.1¢·now 89.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$153.16
$24.56
- YES
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
162 shares @ 69.4¢·now 93.6¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$151.36
$39.06
- NO
Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
133 shares @ 85.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$125.32
$11.96
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?
144 shares @ 69.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$124.74
$25.24
- NO
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
108 shares @ 53.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$108.09
$50.56
- YES
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election?
122 shares @ 89.2¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$107.06
$-1.45
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$0.00Jul 29, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$79.31Jul 28, 15:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 06:17 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 2 - 1 FC Universitario?$9.94Jul 28, 05:38 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 2 FC Universitario?$0.00Jul 28, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 0 FC Universitario?$0.00Jul 28, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 2 - 3 FC Universitario?$0.00Jul 28, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 0 - 3 FC Universitario?$0.00Jul 28, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 1 - 2 FC Universitario?$0.00Jul 28, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 1 - 3 FC Universitario?$0.00Jul 28, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 1 FC Universitario?$0.00Jul 28, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 3 FC Universitario?$0.00Jul 28, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: GV CD San José 2 - 2 FC Universitario?$0.00Jul 28, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill GamerLegion make a roster change before August?$38.47Jul 28, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?$4.23Jul 28, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?$45.92Jul 28, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?$2.87Jul 27, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$5.02Jul 27, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?$3.77Jul 27, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Frank Klingebiel win the next Salzgitter mayoral election?$54.18Jul 27, 10:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $19.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 02:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.