Wallet digest

active

Activity score

50/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-89.61

Realised

$-1.08

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

DOWN
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20?
158 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May?
58 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$0.00
$-28.64
NO
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?
50 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$0.00
$-25.53
DOWN
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 21?
20 shares @ 70.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-14.36
DOWN
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 21?
8 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 21?
7 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00

Recent activity

REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?$10.93May 29, 22:18 UTC
TRADESELLWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$32.48May 27, 19:38 UTC
REDEEMWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May?$57.79May 27, 18:27 UTC
REDEEMWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?$10.00May 26, 22:21 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$32.12May 25, 14:32 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$32.25May 25, 14:21 UTC
TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?$1.13May 24, 21:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?$4.94May 23, 20:34 UTC
TRADESELLWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?$11.46May 23, 16:34 UTC
TRADESELLWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May?$0.85May 23, 08:33 UTC
TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?$7.92May 22, 22:35 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May?$22.50May 22, 21:33 UTC
TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?$8.98May 22, 21:29 UTC
REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22?$9.43May 22, 21:18 UTC
REDEEMTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 22?$6.67May 22, 21:18 UTC
TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?$8.43May 22, 19:47 UTC
TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?$9.11May 22, 19:46 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?$5.10May 22, 17:57 UTC
TRADEBUYTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 22?$5.05May 22, 13:31 UTC
TRADESELLWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?$23.72May 22, 13:30 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry67 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk48 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $9.97
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 20, 15:52 UTC
Last active: May 29, 22:18 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:32:48 UTC·src:Polymarket Data