Wrong-Fledgling
0xc2b52ad653673802993f20fb09f28c5f200838a5
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$11.93
Total PnL
$-81.14
Realised
$-9.11
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
12 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$11.93
$-0.07
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?
2750 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.50
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?
1609 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 8?
875 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17?
837 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 8?
825 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.30
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17?
625 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- WARRIORS
Lakers vs. Warriors
10 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.90
- JELENA OSTAPENKO
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Jelena Ostapenko
10 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- GEORGE LOFFHAGEN
Thionville: Sebastian Ofner vs George Loffhagen
9 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.40
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$93.19Aug 11, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$93.01Jul 9, 11:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June?$93.28Jul 9, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June?$93.01Jun 30, 08:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$12.02Jun 30, 08:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?$81.08Jun 30, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?$81.00May 31, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays$2.55May 31, 11:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on May 30?$11.12May 31, 11:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?$72.22May 31, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?$72.02May 30, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$12.00May 30, 05:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$84.28May 30, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$84.20May 29, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on May 30?$11.10May 29, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs$6.86May 29, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28?$88.09May 29, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28?$88.01May 28, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$12.01May 28, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYThunder vs. Spurs$3.57May 28, 06:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
28/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $68.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 11:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 09:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.