Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Probability
2¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$5.0K
Liquidity
$6.5K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $6.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 646.4h
Price movement
+0.9pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -44.3pp at 3d ago (to 2¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 3d ago · -14.9pp → 1¢
- 3d ago · -26.5pp → 1¢
- 3d ago · -9.3pp → 1¢
- 3d ago · -23.3pp → 1¢
- 3d ago · -44.3pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -34.1pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -40.0pp → 2¢
- 4d ago · +7.6pp → 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Alerts
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