Wallet digest

active

Activity score

41/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-114.00

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

NO
U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?
273 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026
$0.00
$-27.00
YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
153 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-17.00
NO
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will England win on 2026-07-15?
83 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
NO
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?
34 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
20 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
NO
North Korea missile launch by March 15?
18 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?
9 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00

Recent activity

YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-15?$30.96Jul 14, 15:48 UTC
TRADESELLWill Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$1.72Jul 14, 15:45 UTC
TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$27.75Jul 14, 15:45 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:19 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:14 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity27 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry38 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk51 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 3
Avg trade size: $20.14
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 30, 00:11 UTC
Last active: Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 11:18:38 UTC·src:Polymarket Data