Important-Assumption
0xc31978500c02b2f98159c2aec53bc6baf5b36baa
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$210.77
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- OVER
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5
669 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$669.00
$327.81
- NO
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
356 shares @ 78.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$348.35
$70.67
- YES
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
699 shares @ 44.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$136.31
$-171.25
- YES
Will Ethena reach $0.60 by December 31, 2026?
771 shares @ 12.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$61.68
$-30.84
- YES
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
208 shares @ 18.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$4.45
$-32.99
- NO
Will "Prowler" be said during the Valorant Masters Grand Finals?
1314 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-223.38
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 8PM ET
648 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-330.48
- NO
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?
590 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-342.20
- NO
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
575 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-149.50
- UP
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 10PM ET
387 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-193.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$467.68Apr 27, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$473.60Apr 27, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$139.86Apr 27, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$1.2KApr 23, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethena reach $0.60 by December 31, 2026?$92.52Apr 23, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYManchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5$341.19Apr 23, 07:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$329.00Apr 14, 09:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hezbollah disarm by March 31?$716.00Apr 14, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$284.40Apr 9, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$42.84Apr 9, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$12.12Apr 9, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$4.80Apr 9, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$214.08Apr 9, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$316.80Apr 8, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$54.96Apr 8, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$149.50Apr 7, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?$307.56Apr 7, 08:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$100.00Mar 17, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei tweet every day through March 27?$729.00Mar 17, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$246.24Mar 17, 05:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $194.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 6, 07:02 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 09:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.