Grand-Restoration
0xc34a4af2e3a818fdcdfaa7b5b140eca017ae6007
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$15.1K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$200.86
Win rate
83%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
2000 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$1.30
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
2000 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.0K
$16.36
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2100 shares @ 79.7¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$-89.00
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
1500 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.5K
$37.01
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
2156 shares @ 55.8¢·now 49.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.1K
$-135.19
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
1000 shares @ 96.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$997.50
$30.00
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
1100 shares @ 68.5¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$753.49
$-0.50
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
700 shares @ 78.3¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$514.50
$-33.50
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
500 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$499.75
$14.75
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 94.3¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$493.49
$21.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$2.50Jul 29, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$5.59Jul 29, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$3.59Jul 29, 14:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$369.99Jul 29, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$68.08Jul 29, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$34.05Jul 29, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$34.05Jul 29, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$34.05Jul 29, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$102.15Jul 29, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$56.00Jul 29, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$112.00Jul 29, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$84.00Jul 29, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$56.00Jul 29, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$448.00Jul 29, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$6.20Jul 29, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$106.00Jul 28, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$53.00Jul 28, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$37.80Jul 28, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$136.04Jul 28, 23:04 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$18.00Jul 28, 22:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $91.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 14:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.