Large-Bureau
0xc3a263872e00ccb02ca18e4b14e070db6399d0bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$80.81
Total PnL
$-157.37
Realised
$-6.25
Win rate
58%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 26?
18 shares @ 20.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$11.33
$7.74
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 24.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.38
$0.38
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
46 shares @ 13.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$6.21
$0.23
- NO
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
19 shares @ 32.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.81
$-0.19
- YES
US recession by end of 2026?
50 shares @ 12.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$5.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?
19 shares @ 32.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$5.72
$-0.28
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
17 shares @ 36.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.36
$-0.58
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
25 shares @ 24.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.13
$-0.88
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?
28 shares @ 21.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$5.04
$-0.84
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?
43 shares @ 14.4¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$4.97
$-1.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?$0.57Jun 23, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.00Jun 23, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?$5.95Jun 23, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$0.17Jun 23, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$4.41Jun 23, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$0.27Jun 23, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$1.04Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?$5.98Jun 23, 14:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?$1.86Jun 23, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?$2.25Jun 23, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?$7.00Jun 23, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?$4.20Jun 23, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?$1.75Jun 23, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$6.00Jun 23, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$0.28Jun 23, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$0.16Jun 23, 08:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.43Jun 23, 05:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.83Jun 23, 05:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$3.60Jun 23, 05:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.37Jun 23, 04:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 08:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 20:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.