Large-Bureau
0xc3a263872e00ccb02ca18e4b14e070db6399d0bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
108
Open notional
$49.70
Total PnL
$-249.80
Realised
$-6.92
Win rate
63%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 108- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 27.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.73
$-1.21
- NO
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
27 shares @ 22.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$3.91
$-2.03
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
6 shares @ 49.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$3.81
$0.87
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
43 shares @ 14.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.19
$-2.76
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
28 shares @ 21.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.94
$-2.94
- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
6 shares @ 36.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.89
$0.91
- NO
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
6 shares @ 50.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.79
$-0.21
- NO
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?
40 shares @ 15.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.20
$-3.80
- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
7 shares @ 39.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$1.93
$-0.80
- YES
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?
5 shares @ 37.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Oct 30, 2026$1.93
$0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?$1.90Aug 8, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$3.30Aug 7, 15:43 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$0.07Aug 7, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dalia Al-Aqidi be the MN-05 Republican nominee?$1.87Aug 5, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?$1.90Aug 4, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$4.30Aug 4, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$0.86Aug 3, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$2.44Aug 3, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$0.26Aug 3, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$0.83Aug 3, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$1.76Aug 3, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$1.98Aug 3, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.20 in August?$1.98Aug 3, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?$1.98Aug 3, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?$8.00Aug 2, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?$1.85Aug 2, 12:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?$2.26Aug 2, 11:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 15?$0.99Aug 2, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?$3.14Aug 2, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?$1.90Aug 2, 02:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
30 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 09:12 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 8, 00:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.