Flashy-Bid
0xc4086b708cd3a50880b7069add1a1a80000f4675
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$30.3K
Total PnL
$4.0K
Realised
$5.8K
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
30000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 74.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$22.4K
$7.4K
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
30000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 25.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.6K
$-7.4K
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
230 shares @ 72.3¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$176.10
$9.63
- YES
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
16598 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$91.29
$-33.66
- YES
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6093 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$39.60
$-5.59
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
12 shares @ 94.4¢·now 95.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.76
$0.09
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
5 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$5.00
$3.20
- YES
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
5 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.30
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17?
140000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-239.82
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
5121 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-309.09
Recent activity
- YIELD$2.68Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.68Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?$0.95Jul 2, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?$0.22Jul 2, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?$0.23Jul 2, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$130.0KJul 2, 00:37 UTC
- YIELD$3.02Jul 2, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$1.9KJul 1, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$10.39Jul 1, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$95.27Jul 1, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$1.9KJul 1, 11:48 UTC
- MERGEWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$30.0KJul 1, 02:31 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.60Jul 1, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$5.21Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$10.0KJun 30, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$6.3KJun 30, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$3.7KJun 30, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$4.1KJun 30, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$3.0KJun 30, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$998.00Jun 30, 14:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$37.5K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
Jun 2, 05:40 UTC → Jun 16, 11:43 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$14.2K@99¢Jun 16, 11:11 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$14.2K
1 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
limited
3 ledger trades
Top market concentration
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
$16.5K · 44% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $3.1K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 10:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.