Bumpy-Ceremony
0xc46832d39eff14beb7a3e4a6403266fe62ed6e84
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$4.71
Total PnL
$-118.96
Realised
$-5.22
Win rate
0%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 15?
13 shares @ 19.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$2.43
$-0.07
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.28
$-7.72
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 23?
10 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 22?
9 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 28?
9 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 18?
9 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 20?
9 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 26?
8 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 2?
7 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 9?
6 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 15?$2.60Aug 13, 05:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 13?$2.15Aug 13, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 13?$2.57Aug 13, 04:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 12?$7.93Aug 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 13?$6.72Aug 12, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 13?$7.15Aug 12, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 12?$7.19Aug 12, 11:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 12?$6.35Aug 12, 11:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 12?$2.40Aug 12, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 12?$2.26Aug 12, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 12?$1.56Aug 12, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 13?$1.20Aug 12, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 12?$7.22Aug 12, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 12?$2.56Aug 12, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 12?$2.57Aug 12, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 13?$2.05Aug 12, 03:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 10?$4.99Aug 11, 05:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 10?$5.43Aug 11, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 11?$2.56Aug 11, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 12?$2.05Aug 11, 01:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
64/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
41 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 15:03 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 05:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.