Fearless-Leading
0xc53ad92b444ce9f371dff66414e9b37e08fa59c2
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$11.59
Total PnL
$-20.06
Realised
$-1.64
Win rate
0%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.59
$0.59
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2 shares @ 41.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.49
$0.49
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
1 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.39
$0.39
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
2 shares @ 59.0¢·now 74.6¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$1.26
$0.26
- NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.18
$0.18
- YES
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
1 shares @ 81.1¢·now 86.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.63
$-0.38
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.53
$-0.47
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.36
$-0.64
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$1.00Jul 25, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?$0.03Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.01Jul 25, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 25, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Fake News" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$1.12Jul 25, 05:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?$2.70Jul 25, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.03Jul 24, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fake News" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$1.00Jul 24, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?$1.03Jul 24, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$1.02Jul 24, 15:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$5.77Jul 24, 15:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$1.42Jul 23, 13:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?$1.56Jul 23, 03:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?$1.64Jul 23, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$1.01Jul 22, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?$1.01Jul 21, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group C$1.05Jul 21, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$1.00Jul 21, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$1.01Jul 21, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group C$1.00Jul 21, 15:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 17:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 08:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.