Icy-Understatement
0xc594516763d980b55784578246ee8137680b627b
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-136.27
Realised
$-53.52
Win rate
6%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 10?
860 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.87
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 6?
236 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-6.40
- YES
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?
53 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 8?
48 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 7?
47 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-0.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 6?
37 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-11.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 12?
21 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 11?
20 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-9.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on February 12?
16 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 11?
15 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?$9.99Jun 12, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?$10.29Jun 12, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?$2.40Feb 18, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Douglas T. Muck Jr. be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?$1.74Feb 18, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.21Feb 18, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.13Feb 18, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$2.65Feb 18, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$2.55Feb 18, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$2.25Feb 18, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$2.03Feb 18, 20:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$2.21Feb 18, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$3.05Feb 18, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Esther Charlestin win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?$1.01Feb 18, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$0.61Feb 18, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$0.05Feb 18, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$0.02Feb 18, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$0.03Feb 18, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$0.04Feb 18, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$0.08Feb 18, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$0.10Feb 18, 20:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 18, 15:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 22:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.