Hospitable-Ash
0xc5c5ede62e774bdf59d66d805c3c3f6ca6e6b898
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
131
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$88.88
Win rate
86%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 131- NO
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)
5800 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-7.80
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
3129 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-44.43
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
369 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-18.46
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
348 shares @ 29.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-104.10
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
267 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$31.24Jun 15, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.07Jun 15, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$4.26Jun 15, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.07Jun 15, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$5.34Jun 15, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$1.43May 13, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$15.74Apr 16, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$5.00Apr 16, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$5.00Apr 16, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$5.00Apr 16, 05:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?$0.91Mar 25, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?$25.15Mar 24, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?$1.27Mar 24, 07:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.36Mar 24, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$7.39Mar 20, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$1.00Mar 20, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$10.00Mar 20, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$2.00Mar 20, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$6.84Mar 20, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$3.34Mar 20, 22:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $7.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 17, 14:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 20:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.