Defiant-Willow
0xc5da9f332dec1d63222f54322f35caa648687f6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$18.23
Total PnL
$-68.06
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
49 shares @ 9.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.29
$4.89
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
314 shares @ 4.8¢·now 2.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.94
$-6.06
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1759 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
859 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-6.90
- YES
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
787 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?
419 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?
256 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?$20.00Dec 11, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?$6.90Dec 11, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$20.00Dec 11, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?$10.00Dec 11, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?$4.40Dec 11, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$15.00Dec 11, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? $10.00Dec 10, 23:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $12.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 10, 23:50 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 11, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".