Muffled-Tulip
0xc6955869835b7f95d933365b47a00183c631b416
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
24
Open notional
$52.18
Total PnL
$-109.61
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 23?
52 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$51.97
$0.03
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.21
$-0.79
- YES
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?
40 shares @ 14.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or below on March 4?
40 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-33.20
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?
40 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 5?
30 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-3.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 5?
30 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-8.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 3?
30 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 2?
20 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-3.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 3?
20 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 23?$51.94Jul 23, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 22?$52.00Jul 22, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 22?$51.91Jul 22, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 21?$52.00Jul 21, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 21?$51.95Jul 21, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 20?$51.00Jul 20, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 20?$50.95Jul 20, 04:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 19?$51.00Jul 19, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 19?$50.95Jul 19, 04:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 18?$51.00Jul 18, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 18?$50.95Jul 18, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 17?$51.00Jul 17, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 17?$50.86Jul 17, 05:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 41°C on July 16?$51.00Jul 16, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 41°C on July 16?$50.93Jul 16, 04:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 15?$51.00Jul 15, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 15?$50.90Jul 15, 04:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C on July 14?$51.00Jul 14, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C on July 14?$50.95Jul 14, 04:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C or higher on July 13?$50.94Jul 13, 15:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $48.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 04:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 06:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.