Neat-Possible
0xc6aadc7adb86ba2be12a4aace9dd115bfd614949
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$9.87
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-17.53
Win rate
80%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
260 shares @ 3.8¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.74
$-0.26
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
13 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.13
$-0.09
- YES
James Norton announced as next James Bond?
3626 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-12.79
- YES
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
2476 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
2033 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-33.65
- YES
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?
2029 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?
1750 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-14.92
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12?
1700 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-13.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$10.31Jul 24, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.05Jul 24, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$2.07Jul 24, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$1.06Jul 24, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$2.11Jul 24, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$5.00Jul 24, 07:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$6.87Jul 24, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$1.04Jul 24, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$2.07Jul 24, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?$10.34Jul 22, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$7.54Jul 17, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$3.11Jul 16, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.06Jul 15, 10:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$20.67Jul 15, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$15.69Jul 15, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$3.00Jul 8, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$10.45Jul 8, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$11.76Jul 8, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$10.37Jul 8, 12:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$12.02Jul 8, 11:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
30 closed markets, 80% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $5.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 10:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 11:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.