Hard-To-Find-Emerald
0xc798197ae9aff808af4406320f31d822ae788aab
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$169.86
Total PnL
$-431.78
Realised
$-45.14
Win rate
3%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?
100 shares @ 56.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 28, 2026$50.50
$-5.50
- NO
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?
240 shares @ 40.6¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$48.06
$-49.45
- NO
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?
60 shares @ 56.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$20.40
$-13.20
- NO
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on August 31, 2026?
18 shares @ 73.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$13.25
$-0.18
- NO
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?
20 shares @ 67.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$13.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will Alfonso Sánchez García win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
40 shares @ 28.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$9.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?
20 shares @ 34.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$6.30
$-0.50
- YES
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by September 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 39.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.50
$-3.30
- YES
Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
20 shares @ 14.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$2.40
$-0.40
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?
271 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.22
$0.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?$33.60Aug 18, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on August 31, 2026?$9.78Aug 18, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on August 31, 2026?$3.65Aug 18, 05:22 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.75Aug 18, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$15.54Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?$13.40Aug 17, 23:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?$5.32Aug 17, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alfonso Sánchez García win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?$11.20Aug 17, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.60Aug 17, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$2.00Aug 17, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Helena Proos be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala?$0.74Aug 17, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Helena Proos be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala?$0.74Aug 17, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?$56.00Aug 17, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ruth González Silva win the 2027 San Luis Potosí Governor Election?$57.00Aug 17, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ruth González Silva win the 2027 San Luis Potosí Governor Election?$57.00Aug 17, 14:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?$55.90Aug 17, 12:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?$2.00Aug 17, 11:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?$1.49Aug 17, 11:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?$1.30Aug 17, 11:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?$1.30Aug 17, 11:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
31 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $27.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 18:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 05:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.