Bare-Legislature
0xc79c0e5722ed519bd9b460cd3c8b9763c63e7b27
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$407.56
Total PnL
$-0.22
Realised
$13.82
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
266 shares @ 26.3¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$78.58
$8.58
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
148 shares @ 40.5¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$68.94
$8.94
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
464 shares @ 6.8¢·now 9.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$42.72
$11.32
- YES
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
95 shares @ 42.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$38.57
$-1.43
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
150 shares @ 20.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.25
$5.25
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 60.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$34.74
$4.74
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
70 shares @ 42.7¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$31.96
$1.96
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
77 shares @ 26.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.15
$1.15
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
38 shares @ 52.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$18.65
$-1.35
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
120 shares @ 16.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$18.60
$-0.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$30.00Jul 23, 15:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$47.31Jul 23, 11:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$46.50Jul 21, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Scam" on Truth Social this week?$10.28Jul 20, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$20.00Jul 20, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$30.43Jul 20, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$19.20Jul 20, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$16.40Jul 20, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. England: Team to Win$0.00Jul 20, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$0.00Jul 20, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Zlatan" or "Ibrahimovic" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?$0.00Jul 20, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Transition" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?$0.00Jul 20, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Maradona" or "Pelé" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?$81.97Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Captain" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?$79.37Jul 20, 00:30 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 4.5 Corners$50.42Jul 19, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$30.85Jul 19, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$5.23Jul 19, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$20.68Jul 19, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 4.5 Corners$30.61Jul 19, 19:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $27.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 11:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 15:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.