Flamboyant-Warming
0xc7d02944a76b9f83b199e9090ecc92c82d241f8a
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$16.0K
Total PnL
$-27.0K
Realised
$30.0K
Win rate
77%
92 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2692 shares @ 97.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.7K
$54.72
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?
2371 shares @ 94.3¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.4K
$125.70
- NO
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?
2068 shares @ 85.7¢·now 98.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.0K
$262.64
- NO
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
1993 shares @ 42.2¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$1.1K
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
2668 shares @ 20.4¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$1.8K
$1.3K
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
2182 shares @ 59.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.6K
$272.74
- YES
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
2162 shares @ 26.5¢·now 55.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$1.2K
$615.18
- YES
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
2399 shares @ 41.4¢·now 33.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$791.61
$-202.65
- NO
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
2046 shares @ 22.3¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$654.71
$197.79
- NO
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
4825 shares @ 33.4¢·now 6.3¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$306.39
$-1.3K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Zdenko Lučić be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$0.66Jul 28, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zdenko Lučić be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$2.44Jul 28, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$17.82Jul 28, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?$18.09Jul 28, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 28?$3.72Jul 28, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: UB Alma Mater vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner$1.02Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$78.90Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?$58.28Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: UB Alma Mater vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner$4.62Jul 28, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 28?$0.19Jul 28, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: UB Alma Mater vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - LES Regular Season$58.94Jul 28, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump?$124.34Jul 28, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?$2.72Jul 28, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?$20.26Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYMap Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5)$3.07Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump?$115.46Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: MIBR vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffs$8.84Jul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Boeing say "Guidance" during earnings call?$2.61Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 28?$5.92Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$2.80Jul 28, 14:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
77% win rate over 92 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
92 closed markets, 77% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $29.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 92 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.