Baggy-Variant
0xc7e477a925812f0e81ec845de6c91ec0e2979c07
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
143
Open notional
$5.55
Total PnL
$-359.75
Realised
$-37.55
Win rate
2%
137 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 143- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
21 shares @ 23.3¢·now 16.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.47
$-1.53
- YES
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$0.85
$-0.15
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.81
$-0.19
- YES
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.42
$-0.58
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
1045 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.45
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?
487 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET
259 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?$1.03Jul 10, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?$1.05Jul 10, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.06Jul 10, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.06Jul 9, 09:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$0.00Jul 9, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$0.96Jul 9, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.06Jul 8, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$1.07Jul 7, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.07Jul 6, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$1.07Jul 6, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.00Jul 6, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$1.04Jul 6, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.07Jul 6, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.07Jul 6, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.06Jul 6, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.07Jul 6, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.06Jul 6, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.07Jul 6, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.03Jul 6, 11:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$2.63Jul 6, 11:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 137 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
137 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 09:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 13:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 137 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.