Political-Toad
0xc8383dec11ec4ec425c883123d9110f758ad8326
Activity score
91/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$773.41
Total PnL
$8.63
Realised
$-0.30
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
600 shares @ 96.8¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$587.70
$7.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 30?
100 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$99.95
$0.95
- NO
Will Solana dip to $65 on April 30?
26 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$25.83
$0.25
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 30?
20 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$19.99
$0.19
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on April 30?
20 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$19.99
$0.19
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on April 30?
20 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 1, 2026$19.95
$0.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 30?$308.1912m ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30?$999.9912m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 30?$305.115h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30?$495.009h ago
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 30?$657.0413h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 30?$45.0313h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 30?$116.5113h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 30?$138.6214h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30?$297.0014h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30?$35.3514h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30?$54.4814h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 30?$287.1015h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 30?$108.9015h ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 29?$11.2616h ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 29?$100.0016h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30?$108.1617h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 30?$53.9720h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,950 on April 30?$19.8121h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 30?$19.8121h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $83,000 on April 30?$19.8121h ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $104.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 2d ago
- Last active
- 12m ago
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".