Political-Goodwill
0xc84ee2b6fc22c2344534b1f9612abdd1d610be40
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$7.02
Total PnL
$-382.21
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
4 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$3.61
$0.11
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$2.25
$0.12
- YES
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
1 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$1.16
$0.06
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6AM ET
3000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-15.79
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8AM ET
2200 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-69.28
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11PM ET
2100 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-39.49
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8PM ET
1800 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-36.89
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8PM ET
1600 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-26.39
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2AM ET
1400 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-9.89
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5AM ET
1400 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-55.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?$1.10May 28, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$3.51May 28, 05:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on April 28?$1.03May 28, 05:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?$4.51May 28, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on April 28?$1.03Apr 27, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$2.13Apr 27, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?$4.21Apr 27, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?$1.19Apr 27, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.70Apr 27, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$3.11Apr 27, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?$1.10Mar 9, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.10Mar 9, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$3.10Mar 9, 04:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill The Great Divide - Noah Kahan be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?$1.22Mar 9, 04:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?$10.14Mar 9, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Great Divide - Noah Kahan be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?$1.20Feb 4, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$2.50Feb 4, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?$10.10Feb 4, 12:16 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.07Jan 28, 00:07 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$346.35Jan 27, 13:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $37.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 27, 12:45 UTC
- Last active
- May 28, 05:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.