Mysterious-Jury
0xc8b2b62e9ac155c153c0fdeaf35672be58fb7c84
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$467.61
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-112.44
Win rate
40%
112 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
70 shares @ 36.7¢·now 65.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$45.85
$20.15
- NO
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
38 shares @ 73.6¢·now 96.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$37.06
$8.86
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
39 shares @ 79.0¢·now 78.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$30.41
$-0.34
- NO
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
33 shares @ 63.4¢·now 87.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.06
$7.89
- NO
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
25 shares @ 70.7¢·now 99.4¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$24.85
$7.16
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
31 shares @ 49.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$23.88
$8.88
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
34 shares @ 58.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$22.01
$2.22
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
25 shares @ 27.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$20.37
$13.62
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
45 shares @ 38.9¢·now 44.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$20.09
$2.52
- NO
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
20 shares @ 83.7¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$18.01
$1.27
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$29.91Jul 27, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?$20.00Jul 27, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?$0.00Jul 24, 21:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?$0.21Jul 23, 10:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?$0.22Jul 23, 10:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 13?$0.40Jul 23, 10:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?$0.95Jul 23, 10:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1?$0.96Jul 23, 10:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Breece Hall be traded?$10.00Jul 23, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jalen Carter be traded?$10.00Jul 23, 08:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?$20.00Jul 21, 14:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$29.11Jul 20, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gen.G win the EWC League of Legends Tournament$20.00Jul 18, 19:49 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$22.72Jul 18, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$8.18Jul 17, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?$15.60Jul 15, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$20.50Jul 15, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?$14.00Jul 15, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$8.40Jul 15, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$0.01Jul 15, 09:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 112 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
112 closed markets, 40% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $9.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 20:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 02:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 112 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.