EntertainmentExpires May 25, 2026
Creator

Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?

Probability

59¢

1h

+1.5pp

24h

-20.5pp

24h Vol

$16.4K

Liquidity

$1.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
billboard.com
Link
billboard.com
Type
Source not classified
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
59¢
May 15, 2026, 18:00 UTCMay 16, 2026, 19:32 UTC
updated 19:32:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-16T19-32Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 21pp over 24h

    Now 59¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 10.0× turnover

    $16.4k traded against $1.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 64¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 25, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 196.5h

    LOW

Price movement

-20.5pp over the last 24h, now 59¢.

updated 19:32:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 19:32:43 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if albums by Drake hold the top 3 spots of the Billboard 200 chart for the week titled "Week of May 30, 2026". A qualifying album must credit Drake as a primary artist. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard 200 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

billboard

Reason

Question text contains "billboard" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?"?

As of Sat, 16 May 2026 19:32:43 GMT, YES is priced at 59% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -20.5pp in the last 24 hours, +1.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 25, 2026 (2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$16.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $16.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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