Political-Joy
0xc9480423c53c4641ac85b2386bbe9240fd6559b7
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
68
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-20.4K
Realised
$-5.6K
Win rate
2%
58 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
50000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?
6667 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-199.99
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?
5500 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-208.50
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?
4800 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-228.59
- YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
4348 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?
3660 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-198.98
- YES
Will Egypt win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?
3419 shares @ 16.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-557.07
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3390 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3106 shares @ 16.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-500.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?
3025 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-174.92
Recent activity
- REDEEMUFC 330: Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)$715.80Aug 15, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 330: Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims)$104.25Aug 15, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 330: Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)$52.33Aug 15, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the fight be won by submission? AND O/U 4.5 Rounds AND UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)$500.00Aug 15, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Neither team to score first?$104.75Jul 18, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?$209.70Jul 18, 13:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$103.04Jul 14, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?$206.70Jul 14, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Spain end in a draw?$207.00Jul 14, 11:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$805.96Jul 11, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-11?$10.50Jul 11, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$207.52Jul 11, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYKylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals$99.99Jul 11, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$517.25Jul 11, 08:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-10?$1.0KJul 10, 21:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 58 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
58 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $241.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 22:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 58 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.