Troubled-Anesthesiologist
0xc94e7402df228c331db453594c5b6a95143055dc
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$1.71
Total PnL
$-143.05
Realised
$0.09
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- YES
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.92
$-0.08
- YES
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
15 shares @ 6.7¢·now 4.3¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$0.65
$-0.35
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.12
$-0.88
- YES
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
30 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.01
$-2.96
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.01
$-0.99
- YES
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Iran leadership change by June 30?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
367 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
267 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.52
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?$0.82Jul 2, 08:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?$1.00Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$1.16Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?$2.69Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?$4.37Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$2.99Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$5.39Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$6.11Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?$3.63Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLFlávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?$1.59Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.92Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$6.47Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$7.53Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.76Jul 2, 08:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.42Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?$1.01Jun 30, 03:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June?$1.01Jun 30, 03:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?$1.02Jun 30, 03:18 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$1.02Jun 30, 03:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$1.00Jun 30, 03:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 03:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 08:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.