Untimely-Fresco
0xc9727ed498a58a9e8e8758d51c5a4eb0b752dcd9
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
133
Open notional
$6.6K
Total PnL
$3.1K
Realised
$418.17
Win rate
82%
34 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 133- NO
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?
2434 shares @ 0.3¢·now 88.9¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$2.2K
$2.2K
- NO
Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
740 shares @ 72.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$599.29
$66.29
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1099 shares @ 33.6¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$472.03
$102.93
- NO
Will Trump say "Whale" in July?
388 shares @ 54.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$362.84
$151.35
- NO
Will MrBeast say "Feastable" or "Feastables" during his next YouTube video?
414 shares @ 78.6¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$339.73
$13.93
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1100 shares @ 23.5¢·now 28.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$307.46
$48.61
- YES
Will the Bayeux Tapestry be back in France by December 31, 2027?
244 shares @ 84.2¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$214.99
$9.21
- DATABRICKS
Databricks vs Stripe — higher valuation on December 31?
289 shares @ 26.7¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$211.30
$134.15
- YES
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?
187 shares @ 60.9¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$157.63
$44.09
- NO
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 24?
300 shares @ 73.5¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$145.44
$-74.93
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?$4.95Jul 23, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$0.20Jul 23, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$5.20Jul 23, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$0.30Jul 23, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$0.03Jul 23, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$1.04Jul 23, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$0.01Jul 23, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$0.09Jul 23, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$0.20Jul 23, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$0.29Jul 23, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla say "Software" during earnings call?$6.65Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla say "Car" 10+ times during earnings call?$6.65Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill AT&T (T) Q2 total revenue be above $32.2B?$15.00Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Blackstone (BX) Q2 total assets under management be above $1.32T?$20.00Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMThermo Fisher (TMO) Q2 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) -2%-0%?$20.00Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Texas Instruments (TXN) Q2 Analog revenue be above $4.25B?$20.00Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Texas Instruments (TXN) Q2 Analog revenue be above $4B?$20.00Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Texas Instruments (TXN) Q2 Analog revenue be above $5B?$20.00Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMThermo Fisher (TMO) Q2 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) <-2%?$20.00Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Blackstone (BX) Q2 total assets under management be above $1.35T?$20.00Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 34 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
34 closed markets, 82% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $16.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 03:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 16:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 34 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.