Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?
Probability
86¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+11.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$12.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+18.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 11pp over 24h
Now 86¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 11.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.4h
- 13:35SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 86¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 86¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 85¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 85¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 85¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 85¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 82¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 84¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 85¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 86¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 81¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 83¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 75¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 76¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 81¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 80¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 77¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 76¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 77¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 76¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 76¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Serbian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market is about whether a date for the next Serbian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).