Only-Forum
0xc9826a90140310e295c8b8839a7efc4716a7044b
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$28.20
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$0.15
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.50
$0.50
- YES
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.25
$0.25
- YES
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.25
$0.25
- YES
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.25
$0.25
- YES
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.08
$0.08
- YES
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.93
$-0.07
- YES
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.81
$-0.19
- YES
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.81
$-0.19
- YES
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.79
$-0.21
- YES
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.75
$-0.25
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.