Belated-Switchboard
0xca081780bdc892deb5a9a8114514d756c2631267
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$721.05
Total PnL
$-540.91
Realised
$-85.30
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
400 shares @ 55.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$310.00
$90.00
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
130 shares @ 75.6¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$102.05
$3.80
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
114 shares @ 87.4¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.89
$1.21
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
647 shares @ 18.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$87.34
$-29.11
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?
73 shares @ 44.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$59.13
$27.01
- NO
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?
40 shares @ 70.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$27.38
$-0.60
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
100 shares @ 19.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$20.00
$1.00
- NO
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
84 shares @ 27.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$14.25
$-8.38
- NO
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 16?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$19.00Jul 29, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?$17.68Jul 29, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?$26.00Jul 29, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$33.60Jul 29, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$27.00Jul 29, 07:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$3.04Jul 29, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$8.74Jul 29, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$1.90Jul 29, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$9.88Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$5.51Jul 29, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$20.30Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$1.13Jul 28, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$6.45Jul 28, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$0.04Jul 28, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$0.06Jul 28, 22:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$5.00Jul 28, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$10.00Jul 28, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$3.31Jul 28, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$1.40Jul 28, 20:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $13.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 15:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.