Wallet digest

active

Activity score

36/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$3.41

Total PnL

$-31.24

Realised

$-5.04

Win rate

21 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 25

YES
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026
$1.22
$0.22
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 40.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$1.11
$0.11
NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 57.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$1.09
$0.09
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?
5 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?
4 shares @ 59.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-2.65
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
4 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17?
3 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?
3 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

REDEEMSpread: Portugal (-2.5)$2.27Jun 23, 19:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5$1.01Jun 23, 12:40 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Portugal (-2.5)$1.02Jun 23, 12:40 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Portugal (-2.5)$1.56Jun 6, 21:51 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$7.25Jun 6, 13:41 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: England (-2.5)$1.02Jun 6, 13:38 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Portugal (-2.5)$1.01Jun 6, 13:38 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Mexico (-1.5)$1.01Jun 6, 13:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$5.11Jun 6, 13:35 UTC
REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$1.64May 29, 23:48 UTC
REDEEMWill the NBA alter draft lottery rules?$1.08May 28, 22:41 UTC
REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24?$2.94May 24, 18:13 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Cavaliers (-8.5)$2.86May 24, 04:14 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$5.49May 24, 00:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$5.03May 23, 21:28 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24?$2.04May 23, 21:28 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Cavaliers (-8.5)$2.02May 23, 21:27 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the NBA alter draft lottery rules?$2.03May 23, 21:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on May 19?$1.82May 22, 06:57 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Knicks (-2.5)$1.64May 22, 03:28 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

50/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 21 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence70 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry76 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk42 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 32
Avg trade size: $1.49
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 2, 17:13 UTC
Last active: Jun 23, 19:11 UTC
Win rate sample: 21 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 16:17:42 UTC·src:Polymarket Data