Alarming-Leg
0xcaf59289145789242a4af6b975997344229841ab
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$73.68
Total PnL
$19.22
Realised
$16.35
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?
38 shares @ 8.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$25.25
$22.23
- NO
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
21 shares @ 57.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$19.67
$7.74
- NO
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
9 shares @ 48.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$6.29
$2.15
- YES
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
7 shares @ 67.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp May 16, 2026$4.51
$0.03
- YES
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
11 shares @ 41.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp May 16, 2026$4.46
$-0.06
- NO
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
7 shares @ 58.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.03
$-0.04
- YES
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
84 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$3.53
$-0.67
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
9 shares @ 46.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$3.13
$-1.17
- YES
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.82
$-0.20
- FC RAPID 1923
Spread: FC Rapid 1923 (-1.5)
10 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.01
$-4.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$4.65May 15, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$4.55May 15, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLAl Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 1.5$5.24May 15, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?$3.52May 15, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?$4.51May 15, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYAl Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 1.5$4.57May 15, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: FC Rapid 1923 (-1.5)$4.41May 15, 18:55 UTC
- TRADESELLÇaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5$1.17May 15, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLÇaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5$1.29May 15, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLÇaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5$2.50May 15, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYÇaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5$4.37May 15, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$25.17May 15, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$4.68May 15, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLMohammedan SC vs. Mumbai City FC: O/U 2.5$2.73May 15, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLMohammedan SC vs. Mumbai City FC: O/U 2.5$0.03May 15, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYMohammedan SC vs. Mumbai City FC: O/U 2.5$1.96May 15, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYMohammedan SC vs. Mumbai City FC: O/U 2.5$2.45May 15, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)$4.99May 15, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLTianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5$5.94May 15, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)$2.65May 15, 12:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 18:36 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 20:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".