Wallet digest

active

Activity score

60/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-10.2K

Realised

$328.61

Win rate

75%

55 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
12500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET
1942 shares @ 20.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-400.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
1214 shares @ 40.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-487.16
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
986 shares @ 22.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-225.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2AM ET
937 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026
$0.00
$-199.94
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?
714 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
585 shares @ 38.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-225.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
579 shares @ 21.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-125.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
543 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-17.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3AM ET
507 shares @ 36.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-183.99

Recent activity

REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?$1.50Aug 1, 04:24 UTC
TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?$124.90Jul 27, 14:57 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?$121.68Jul 27, 11:44 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$98.62Jul 26, 09:06 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?$9.14Jul 26, 06:11 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$61.95Jul 26, 06:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$100.88Jul 22, 01:21 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$80.23Jul 20, 16:00 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$81.14Jul 20, 08:06 UTC
TRADESELLSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$16.76Jul 19, 22:12 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$10.20Jul 19, 21:39 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$22.59Jul 18, 19:01 UTC
TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?$52.26Jul 16, 17:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$9.35Jul 14, 13:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$10.41Jul 14, 13:51 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?$52.75Jul 14, 13:33 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$56.60Jul 14, 06:07 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$39.53Jul 14, 06:07 UTC
TRADEBUYT20 Series England vs India: England vs India$13.71Jul 11, 14:47 UTC
TRADEBUYT20 Series England vs India: England vs India$86.44Jul 11, 14:27 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

82/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

75% win rate over 55 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

55 closed markets, 75% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity56 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry71 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $41.30
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 23, 07:25 UTC
Last active: Aug 1, 04:24 UTC
Win rate sample: 55 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:49:57 UTC·src:Polymarket Data