Reasonable-Matter
0xccbe333f1be78b3fa5939e12b6dfb65a7c8bb19b
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
196
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.7K
Realised
$904.69
Win rate
69%
108 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 196- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9PM ET
1816 shares @ 64.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9AM ET
1198 shares @ 34.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-410.01
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 8AM ET
1054 shares @ 23.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-248.27
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 5AM ET
907 shares @ 79.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-720.58
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 10AM ET
641 shares @ 20.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-129.98
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10AM ET
631 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-73.06
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 5AM ET
566 shares @ 30.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-174.53
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8AM ET
533 shares @ 50.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-269.33
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
509 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-117.15
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
478 shares @ 34.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-163.16
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$0.14May 6, 11:37 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.36May 6, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$40.00May 5, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$3.74May 5, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$4.60May 5, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$0.86May 5, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$5.46May 5, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$3.89May 5, 23:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$20.00May 5, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$10.40May 5, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$10.36May 5, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$2.08May 5, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$0.24May 5, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$0.08May 5, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$14.97May 5, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$0.83May 5, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?$20.02May 5, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$2.05May 5, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$1.31May 5, 22:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$20.00May 5, 14:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
83/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 108 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
108 closed markets, 69% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $4.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 10:01 UTC
- Last active
- May 6, 11:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 108 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.