Precious-Identity
0xcd3e9dd185f155122d5ba1d1cdce322238e6ae81
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$933.72
Total PnL
$-1.04
Realised
$89.04
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
1738 shares @ 11.3¢·now 12.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$217.23
$20.17
- NO
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
425 shares @ 65.9¢·now 40.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$172.17
$-107.83
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
164 shares @ 76.2¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$142.74
$17.74
- YES
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
380 shares @ 37.5¢·now 37.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$142.31
$-0.19
- YES
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
371 shares @ 35.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$116.94
$-13.06
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
73 shares @ 68.6¢·now 69.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$50.33
$0.33
- NO
Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
33 shares @ 75.1¢·now 73.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$24.46
$-0.54
- NO
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
26 shares @ 57.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$17.76
$2.76
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
13 shares @ 91.3¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.64
$0.64
- YES
Will Boris Vallaud win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
19 shares @ 27.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$7.87
$2.87
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$50.63Jul 23, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?$4.15Jul 23, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by March 31, 2027?$5.17Jul 23, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYLe Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by April 17, 2027?$5.14Jul 23, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?$20.21Jul 23, 23:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$20.43Jul 18, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$20.56Jul 18, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?$20.49Jul 18, 07:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $32.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.