Giddy-Chafe
0xcd91a549956854fdc38efad7e80ff5da8f5432b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-66.6K
Realised
$13.2K
Win rate
93%
91 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
339147 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-713.57
- YES
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
338309 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-714.17
- YES
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
336754 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-714.59
- YES
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
335636 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-715.58
- YES
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
319436 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-677.84
- YES
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
317899 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-722.27
- YES
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
299311 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-684.52
- YES
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
294537 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-611.75
- YES
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
276680 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-538.42
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?
266411 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-347.67
Recent activity
- REDEEMLoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner$5.84Jul 28, 14:17 UTC
- REDEEMGames Total: O/U 2.5$9.00Jul 28, 14:15 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner$15.50Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
- CONVERSIONLargest Company end of July?$17.10Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Los Angeles on July 28?$65.17Jul 28, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$252.78Jul 28, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$8.54Jul 28, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$6.98Jul 28, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.56Jul 28, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 29?$0.85Jul 28, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 28?$8.06Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 28?$9.28Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 28?$9.30Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 28?$7.88Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 28?$9.29Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 28?$9.10Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 28?$9.30Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 28?$2.89Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- MERGEWill MrBeast's next video get between 27 and 28 million views on day 3?$50.00Jul 28, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 27 and 28 million views on day 3?$49.48Jul 28, 13:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
93% win rate over 91 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
91 closed markets, 93% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $51.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 14:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 91 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.