Nice-Perennial
0xcdb1f1ef8213c06911e4ba6a884176c5571e276c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$61.0K
Total PnL
$1.6K
Realised
$765.79
Win rate
84%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
35000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$30.6K
$13.1K
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
5001 shares @ 92.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.0K
$353.85
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
5002 shares @ 97.8¢·now 98.3¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$4.9K
$24.51
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
35000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 12.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.4K
$-13.1K
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
3198 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$3.2K
$26.80
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
3061 shares @ 77.2¢·now 80.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.5K
$110.02
- NO
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
2246 shares @ 94.9¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$2.2K
$29.60
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
2077 shares @ 95.7¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$2.0K
$33.53
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?
1238 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.2K
$25.04
- NO
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
968 shares @ 95.3¢·now 97.3¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$941.30
$18.88
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$65.00Jul 29, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$137.97Jul 29, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$106.36Jul 29, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$10.64Jul 29, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$97.80Jul 29, 04:06 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$25.00Jul 29, 04:05 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$2.00Jul 29, 04:05 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$102.69Jul 29, 04:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$122.03Jul 29, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$1.5KJul 29, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$1.4KJul 29, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$48.80Jul 29, 01:36 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$15.99Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$45.45Jul 29, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$17.55Jul 29, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$256.00Jul 29, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$0.37Jul 29, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$3.08Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$36.88Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$47.85Jul 28, 23:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $157.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 10:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 06:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.