Wobbly-Pattern
0xcdb35f03bdebb679a73f431ce7b116dbc8a11c35
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$4.20
Total PnL
$-20.43
Realised
$-0.63
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.0B?
3 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$3.06
$0.06
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
3 shares @ 33.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.14
$0.14
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
42 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- SOMETHING
Nothing Ever Happens: June
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$5.33Jun 2, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: June$5.00Jun 2, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$10.30Jun 2, 04:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$5.15May 27, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$1.03May 26, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$5.01May 26, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.0B?$3.00May 26, 16:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $4.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 26, 16:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 2, 04:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.