PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 2, 2026
Creator

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$347.9K

Liquidity

$2.9M

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-22.9pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
Jun 2, 2026, 21:00 UTCJun 9, 2026, 20:58 UTC
updated 20:58:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-09T20-58Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $347.9k traded against $2.9M of visible liquidity (0.12× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

resolution sensitive
Trust transition

The event window has passed and the market should not be read as settled until the upstream resolution path is confirmed.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: Expired, unresolved

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? State: Expired, unresolved — resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? State: resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -19.0pp at Jun 5, 09:00 UTC (to 5¢).

Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
  • Jun 6, 06:00 UTC · -13.3pp → 3¢
  • Jun 6, 05:00 UTC · -12.8pp → 3¢
  • Jun 6, 04:00 UTC · -12.3pp → 3¢
  • Jun 5, 15:00 UTC · -15.0pp → 5¢
  • Jun 5, 14:00 UTC · -14.9pp → 4¢
  • Jun 5, 12:00 UTC · -16.5pp → 5¢
  • Jun 5, 11:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 5¢
  • Jun 5, 09:00 UTC · -19.0pp → 5¢
updated 20:58:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 20:58:14 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventLos Angeles Mayoral Election
Category · Politics

Market Description

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

mayoral election

Reason

Mayoral / city-election markets are Politics. Also guards against the esports LEC token inside 'election'.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?"?

As of Tue, 09 Jun 2026 20:58:14 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -22.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 2, 2026 (2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$347.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.1M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.9M. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket