0xce36b8fedcac9b02bee7a4e63c483875625748ca
0xce36b8fedcac9b02bee7a4e63c483875625748ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
129
Open notional
$199.62
Total PnL
$-498.81
Realised
$21.52
Win rate
70%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 129- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
605 shares @ 19.8¢·now 26.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$160.39
$40.40
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
360 shares @ 19.4¢·now 3.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.15
$-56.85
- YES
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
185 shares @ 27.0¢·now 4.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.07
$-40.93
- YES
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
286 shares @ 3.5¢·now 2.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$7.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
909 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$6.82
$-3.18
- YES
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?
833 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.08
$-2.92
- YES
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?
157 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.7¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$1.10
$-8.90
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
865 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-17.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
210 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-13.98
- YES
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?
111 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-49.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?$20.65Jun 30, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?$10.39Jun 30, 20:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $15.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 29, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.