Occasional-Macro-Obedience
0xce6d2927201bf1453ff90f825766bdb65c5cdd94
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$14.97
Total PnL
$0.83
Realised
$-0.14
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- BRAZIL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance
14 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$13.51
$3.51
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2 shares @ 44.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.83
$-0.17
- YES
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
8 shares @ 11.9¢·now 7.4¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.63
$-0.37
- NO
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
18 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance$10.08Jun 29, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?$1.03Jun 25, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jun 25, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.02Jun 25, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.04Jun 25, 12:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $2.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 12:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 29, 12:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.